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Showing posts with label India. Show all posts
Showing posts with label India. Show all posts

May 28, 2009

New Financial Architecture

From www.weforum.org



On January 15, 2009, the World Economic Forum released its initial report from the New Financial Architecture project, “The Future of the Global Financial System: A Near-Term Outlook and Long-Term Scenarios.” The effort was mandated by the World Economic Forum’s investors and financial services communities in January 2008 to explore the driving forces that are shaping the global financial system and how these forces might affect governance and industry structure.

Press release
Project Steering Committee and executive summary of report (PDF 1.6 MB)
Full report “The Future of the Global Financial System” (PDF 11.8 MB)
Compendium - Driving Forces (PDF 1.7MB)

Key conclusions from phase one report – “The Future of the Global Financial System”
The phase one report identifies a near-term industry outlook characterized by an expanded scope for regulatory oversight, back to basics in the banking sector, some restructuring by alternative investment firms and the emergence of a new set of winners and losers.

Over the long-term, a range of external forces and critical uncertainties will further shape the industry. In particular, our study found that the pace of power shifts from today’s advanced economies to the emerging world and the degree of international coordination on financial policy are the two most critical uncertainties for the future of the global financial system. The report therefore explores four challenging scenarios.

Driving forces and critical uncertainties
In phase one of the New Financial Architecture project, the World Economic Forum engaged more than 250 industry practitioners, policy-makers and academics in workshops, interviews and participation in a survey to identify and prioritize the key driving forces expected to shape the future of the global financial system between today and 2020. The engagement process resulted in an inventory of 34 prioritized driving forces (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Survey results: prioritization of key driving forces on the future of wholesale financial markets



The phase one long-term scenarios were developed using industry facts, figures and forecasts for key underlying driving forces, which are summarized in the following compendium:
Key driving forces on the future of the wholesale financial markets

Four scenarious for the future of the global financial system

Financial regionalism is a world in which post-crisis blame-shifting and the threat of further economic contagion create three major blocs on trade and financial policy, forcing global companies to construct tripartite strategies to operate globally.

Fragmented protectionism is a world characterized by division, conflict, currency controls and a race-to-the bottom dynamic that only serves to deepen the long-term effects of the financial crisis.

Re-engineered Western-centrism is a highly coordinated and financially homogenous world that has yet to face up to the realities of shifting power and the dangers of regulating for the last crisis rather than the next.

Rebalanced multilateralism is a world in which initial barriers to coordination and disagreement over effective risk management approaches are overcome in the context of rapidly shifting geo-economic power.

Phase two priorities
In phase two of the New Financial Architecture project, the World Economic Forum will work closely with industry stakeholders to delve deeper into the implications of this analysis, with the goal of exploring collaborative strategies and areas of systemic improvement. This will involve an examination of the potential future sources of systemic risk, as well as opportunities to reposition the industry for sustainable, long-term growth in ways that maximize the stability and prosperity of both the financial and real economies.

Figure 2: Transition from phase one to phase two


The World Economic Forum will be hosting workshops with key stakeholders throughout 2009
January 28 - February 1: Davos-Klosters, Switzerland
March (TBC), London, United Kingdom
May 14, Dead Sea, Jordan
September 10, Dalian, China
September (TBC), New York, United States

For more information, please contact:
Max von Bismarck, Director and Head of Investor Industries, max.vonbismarck@weforum.org
Bernd Jan Sikken, Associate Director and Head of Emerging Markets Finance, berndjan.sikken@weforum.org
Nicholas Davis, Associate Director, Scenario Planning, nicholas.davis@weforum.org




February 27, 2009

What do you think of the recent controversy around convergence in the US?

Many thanks to Greg Millman for posing this marvellous question.

I am looking forward to hearing your views on this.


I understand there is some controversy over the adoption of IFRS in the US. This is nothing new… the IFRS resistance has been pretty strong in the US for a number of years. I understand the reluctance of professionals who, having had to study one thick book on USGAAP, are dreading the thought of studying another thick book on IFRS.


Most International Finance Professionals in Europe had to do exactly that. First study local GAAP, which varies from country to country, and then figure out how it all related to USGAAP… Only a determined few still had the energy to go on to study IFRS.


The best argument against the adoption of IFRS, comes from the extra financial burden that this will place on US companies. The timing is not great either. However, future savings will be made by reporting in just one format, and not having to perform reconciliations between different reporting methods. As to the timing, maybe that isn’t so bad either, IFRS implementation will certainly generate a lot of work for finance professionals!

The best way out of a recession in my opinion is to work your way out of it. Wealth creation must come before wealth distribution. We have years of catching up to do.

IFRS has the huge advantage of being a tried and tested platform for the unification of accounting practices across the globe. For stakeholders too, one common reporting language will simplify decision making and make financial statements more transparent.


The other glaring advantage is that it works. USGAAP is rules orientated whilst IFRS is based on a conceptual framework. The “IFRS resistance” often seizes on this phrase as a major downside. I would simply point out that UKGAAP has been based on the same conceptual framework for a very long time. The UK has suffered some embarrassing corporate failures, but there has never been anything on the scale of Enron, Worldcom or Global Crossing - all these occurred on USGAAP’s rules based watch. I believe that USGAAP with its prescriptive approach to accounting issues has become too cumbersome to be truly effective.


Sarbanes Oxley was designed to save USGAAP from a re-run of these high profile corporate failures; however the heavyweight tag team, Sox and USGAAP, could not stop the current financial crisis. Most commentators agree that this crisis emanated from the United States. Many other countries played their own part in making things worse, but it was the American subprime mortgage issue that brought down the whole house of cards.


Over the last twenty years the US has been resisting IFRS, yet these International Standards have been slowly and persistently adopted by many countries around the world. With Canada Brazil, Mexico and India now poised to adopt IFRS, the US is looking more and more isolated in its stance, and so I believe that USGAAP’s days are numbered.


It really is a matter of when, and not if IFRS is adopted in the US.


February 04, 2009

KPMG India launches IFRS Institute

Institute will help companies and individuals to transition from Indian GAAP to IFRS.

The institute will be operational from February 4, 2009

KPMG India to conduct a survey to determine level of preparedness within Corporate India.


Many thanks to Just in Just out

Mumbai 4th February, 2009: KPMG in India today announced the launch of its IFRS Institute in India (IFRS Institute). The IFRS Institute is designed to assist various stakeholders in the planned convergence from Indian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

The IFRS Institute is a web-based platform, which seeks to act as a one-stop site for all information, updates and views on IFRS implementation in India. In addition to propriety KPMG content, the website will provide links to several other sources of information related to IFRS and its implementation. The site can be accessed by all interested parties at no cost. Additionally, the site provides a facility to register as a member by providing certain minimal information. Registered members would be entitled to receive invitation for KPMG sponsored IFRS events and IFRS web casts. Membership to the website is also free. The website can be accessed at https://www.in.kpmg.com/IFRSInstitute

Commenting on the launch of the IFRS Institute, Jamil Khatri, Head of Accounting Advisory Services, KPMG in India said “The conversion from Indian GAAP to IFRS will impact all stakeholders, be it corporate preparers, audit committee and board members, auditors, regulators, investors, analysts and even the public at large. The intent behind the IFRS Institute is to provide updated information to facilitate this transition”. He added “Companies considering conversion to IFRS will need to be prepared to respond to regulatory developments regarding implementing IFRS. Currently, there is lack of clarity on several regulatory matters that would impact implementation”.

Corporate preparers would need to understand the impact of the change in accounting principles on their financial statements, financial reporting processes and IT systems. Audit committee and Board members would also need to understand the new reporting principles. Similarly, investors and analysts would need to understand the impact of the new reporting principles on key metrics such a revenues, net profits, earnings per share and reported book value, which all have an impact on how businesses are valued.

Concurrently, KPMG in India is also launching an online survey to evaluate views of various stakeholders on IFRS implementation in India. There has been widespread debate on whether Indian companies have made sufficient progress on IFRS implementation as compared to other countries such as Canada and South Korea, which have a similar 2011 timeline for IFRS implementation. Recognizing that no comprehensive survey has been done in India to evaluate preparedness, KPMG in India has designed an online survey, which is being rolled-out over the next few weeks. The survey seeks inputs and views on areas relating to benefits of converging with IFRS, implementation challenges, key impact areas and current level of preparedness. The results of the survey along with the related analysis and benchmarking will be released through a report that will be made publicly available to all stakeholders. The survey can be accessed through the IFRS Institute and all members can participate. Results of the survey along with the detailed report by KPMG in India will also be made available on the IFRS Institute.

Commenting on the IFRS survey, Jamil Khatri, Head of Accounting Advisory Services, KPMG in India said that “the results of the survey will enable various stakeholders, including regulators and investors, to better understand the level of IFRS preparedness in India and the steps that may be urgently required by different stakeholders to facilitate timely and smooth IFRS convergence in India

The launch of this India-specific IFRS Institute follows a the successful launch of a similar global KPMG IFRS Institute by KPMG LLP in the United States, which provides a similar forum for IFRS implementation issues in the United States and related global developments.

About KPMG

KPMG is the global network of professional services firms of KPMG International. KPMG member firms provide audit, tax and advisory services through industry focused, talented professionals, who deliver value for the benefit of their clients and communities.

KPMG in India has offices in Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Pune and services over 5,000 international and national clients. The firms in India have access to more than 3500 Indian and expatriate professionals.

For further information contact:

Rohit Varier

Integral PR

98194 03110

2204 7079/ 84

rohit@integralpr.com

February 02, 2009

IASC announces stronger links with regulators...

The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) will face greater scrutiny in the decisions it makes in order to boost its legitimacy.
At a meeting held in New Delhi earlier this month, the trustees of the International Accounting Standards Committee (IASC) Foundation, which oversees the IASB, agreed to changes which will see regulatory authorities play a greater role in the way in which the foundation operates.

In order to achieve this, a monitoring body comprising of leaders from bodies including the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the European Commission and other regulators will be set up to oversee the work of the IASC Foundation.

The change was made in light of recommendations made by the G20 nations at their meeting in November 2008.

Gerrit Zalm, chairman of the IASC trustees, said: "The IASB as an independent standard-setter and the trustees as the oversight body are strengthened by the enhanced governance provided by the link to public authorities through the Monitoring Board.

The new arrangements will help ensure the independence of the IASB, he added.

Recently, the IASB established an action group aimed at dealing with reporting issues arising from the financial crisis.

January 27, 2009

This puts it in perspective

More than a billion people are using the internet


THE number of people going online has passed one billion for the first time, according to comScore, an online metrics company. Almost 180m internet users—over one in six of the world's online population—live in China, more than any other country. Until a few months ago America had most web users, but with 163m people online, or over half of its total population, it has reached saturation point. More populous countries such as China, Brazil and India have many more potential users and will eventually overtake those western countries with already high penetration rates. ComScore counts only unique users above the age of 15 and excludes access in internet cafes and via mobile devices.

January 18, 2009

Early Adoption of IFRS may win investor confidence


A voluntary, early adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) by Indian companies would help allay concerns of overseas investors, particularly in the wake of the Satyam scam, a senior Infosys executive said.

India has agreed to use IFRS as its accounting standard from fiscal 2011-12.

"It’s very important for India to reiterate commitment to IFRS and ask large companies to adopt it a year earlier. It will send a very strong signal that India stands for the highest standards in the world."


TV Mohandas Pai, Infosys director for HR, education & research and administration.


Read more...

January 14, 2009

IFRS 'facing a critical year'...


The prospect of a global accounting language is a welcome one, but 2009 will be a critical year for the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), according to one expert.

Will Rainy, global head of IFRS at Ernst and Young, explained that as an International Accounting Standards Board moratorium on the issuing of new standards has now come to an end, companies using IFRS face a wave of new standards and interpretations.

He said: "With almost 500 pages of new or revised standards and interpretations, companies face a major challenge getting up to speed on and correctly applying the new requirements."

The changes could have an impact on things such as IT systems, merger deals and share-based payment plans as well as accounting, Mr Rainey added.

Yesterday, Fitch Ratings claimed that 2009 will be a pivotal year for accounting. Fair value will be a particular focus, the firm stated.

January 03, 2009

IFRS Around the World

Updated Map of Status of International Financial Reporting Standards 3/1/2009


  • RED IFRS APPROVED
  • ORANGE STATED MOVE TO IFRS ADOPTION - BRAZIL, CANADA...
  • YELLOW ADAPTING TO IFRS - USA, MEXICO, CHINA


ORIGINAL POST 27/08/2007



















  • The US SEC announced that it will issue a Proposing Release this summer that will request comments on proposed changes to the SEC’s rules. The changes would allow the use of IFRSs as issued by the IASB in financial reports filed by foreign companies registered in the US. Currently, foreign companies are required to reconcile their financial statements according to US generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The SEC also plans to issue a Concept Release on the question whether all registrants (including US companies) should be able to report under either IFRSs or US GAAP.

  • The Council of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India decided in July to adopt IFRSs with effect from the accounting periods commencing on or after 1 April 2011, for public interest entities such as listed entities, banks, insurance and large entities.


  • China announced that its central-level State-Owned Enterprises and large to mid-scale companies will all adopt China’s new accounting standards that comply with IFRSs by the end of 2009. The decision does not include SMEs, which make up the majority of China’s companies.

  • The Brazilian Market Regulatory Agency (CVM) published in July an instruction that openly traded Brazilian companies will have until 2010 to present their consolidated statements in accordance with IFRSs. From 2007, listed companies can opt to present their consolidated financial statements based on IFRSs.

  • The Korean Financial Supervisory Commission and the Korea Accounting Standards Board unveiled a roadmap for the adoption of IFRSs at a ceremony in Seoul. All companies in Korea, apart from financial institutions, will be permitted to apply IFRSs, as adopted by Korea, by 2009. Full adoption of IFRSs for listed companies, including financial institutions, will become mandatory by 2011.

  • Representatives of the IASB have attended the regional standard-setters meeting in Manila and met standard-setters from Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Taiwan.

The IASC Foundation held its third IFRS conference in Zurich on 23 and 24 May. Nearly 400 people from 42 countries attended. ‘Delegates appreciate the opportunity to discuss theirspecific circumstances with Board members and senior staff’, said Michael Wells, Senior Manager of the IASC Education Initiative, who organised the conference. ‘Our conferences are aimed at anybody who is involved in or affected by IFRSs’, underlined Wells. ‘It provides the opportunity to meet and discuss IFRS developments with IASB members and project managers.’ The Zurich conference was opened by Sir David Tweedie, Chairman of the IASB. The first day was dedicated to presenting views on IFRSs from the analyst and preparer community.Presentations were given by senior representatives from Novartis, UBS and Standard & Poors,followed by discussion rounds. Keynote speaker for the conference was the Chief Accountant of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Conrad Hewitt. His speech focused on the underpinnings of the international financial reporting system. Of particular interest were the next steps the SEC intends to take relating to the acceptance of IFRSs.The second day focused on the IASB’s active agenda projects. The programme began with a general presentation on the Board’s recent activities followed by five intensive break-out sessions on developments in major projects: the conceptual framework, the reporting entity,consolidations and joint ventures, financial statement presentation, and business combinations.‘Feedback is invaluable, and has been very positive’, said Wells. He added ‘We listened to comments from past conferences, and this year extended the duration of break‑out sessions to allow more interaction. Furthermore, we held separate half-day pre-conference workshops on specialised aspects of financial reporting.’ In August this year the conference and workshops will, for the first time, take place in Asia, being hosted in Singapore. ‘We have decided to change location every year to underline the Foundation’s global objective’, said Wells. But this is not the only effort to be inclusive. ‘We also offer discounts of up to 70 per cent to people from emerging and developing countries’, he added.

December 12, 2008

All eyes now on India to save the world economy

JUST how worrying are the figures, published on Wednesday December 10th, showing that China’s exports and imports plunged in November? Exports fell by 2.2% last month from a year ago; imports plummeted by an astonishing 17.9%. One analyst sums up the news as “a shock figure”. Read original article.

The gloom is spread all over the place. Exports dropped across all big traded goods and all parts of the world. Exports to America fell by 6.1%; those to the ASEAN countries, which had grown by 21.5% in October, fell by 2.4%. The faster decline in imports meant that China’s monthly trade surplus reached a record $40.1 billion. Exports last fell in 2001.

Such numbers would be nasty enough for any big economy, but they are particularly shocking because China’s racing trade has been an engine of world trade, and thus global growth. During the 1990s China’s exports grew at an annual average of 12.9%; from 2000 to 2006 that growth nearly doubled to 21.1% each year, according to the World Bank. China's rapidly rising imports have also driven growth elsewhere. The chief economist of a Chinese bank calls the latest figures “horrifying”.

The rapidity of the decline is as striking as its extent. Trade growth in October was similar to preceeding months; exports grew by more than 19% from a year earlier. A sudden drop in just a month has surprised even the most pessimistic economists. Some analysts point out that a global shortage of trade finance in November may have exaggerated the decline, but the Chinese juggernaut is definitely stumbling.

The consequences for the Chinese economy, which has seen dizzying rates of growth since economic reforms began in 1978 (growth in the 1990s averaged 10.5%), could now be dire. Its growth is unusually driven by its exports, which have made it the world’s factory. According to the World Bank, 27% of world GDP in 2006 came from exports (up from 21% in 1990). The corresponding figures for China that year show it to be particularly dependent on exports: 40% of its GDP came from exports in 2006, compared with 11% for highly open America and 29% for Britain. Thus the potential for a drop in exports to drag down China’s growth is correspondingly greater.

The World Bank’s latest growth predictions were released on Tuesday. These predict that the Chinese economy will expand by 7.5% in 2009, well under its own calculation of 9.5% growth that it reckons China needs to keep unemployment stable. But even these calculations may prove to be overly optimistic. The Bank’s prediction rests in part on the expectation that China’s exports will rise by 4.2% next year. In fact many analysts expect the slump in trade to continue and possibly worsen; UBS, a Swiss bank, predicts that Chinese exports will not grow at all in 2009.

Chinese workers, who are already restive, may find the new year increasingly difficult. Labour disputes almost doubled in the first ten months of 2008 and sacked workers from closed toy factories rioted. If export growth ceases entirely, and jobs are threatened, social responses could be more severe. An estimated 130m people have moved from the countryside to the cities, many for jobs in factories that make goods for export. Zhang Ping, the country’s top planner, has given warning of the risk of social instability arising from massive unemployment.
The latest trade figures also worsen the already gloomy outlook for the rest of the world. Some were counting on China to prop up the global economy, as much of the rich world falls into recession. Merrill Lynch had expected China to contribute 60% of global growth in 2009. But the dramatic fall in imports suggest that the Chinese can not be relied on to be the consumer of last resort.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs expect several more months of shrinking exports. Speculation that China will devalue its currency is rife, but this would have little effect if world demand is simply collapsing. The experience of South Korea is instructive: its currency has fallen by a third against the dollar this year, but this did not prevent its exports from dropping by 18.3% in November, compared with a year ago. Unfortunately, this may not be enough to deter the Chinese government from trying to push down the yuan, which has appreciated significantly on a trade-weighted basis.

Fiscal stimulus is much more important; efforts to boost domestic demand would help both China and the world. Most analysts expect announcements about new measures on top of the $586 billion package already announced. Interest rates and taxes are likely to be cut further.

December 09, 2008

IFRS is the next SOX

Looking ahead, it’s easy to predict that International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) could become the next SOX – an area where the supply of accountants who know the subject falls short of the number of companies who need that expertise. Read original article by

The fact that IFRS is coming to America is definitely sinking in. More than half of all CPAs nationwide say they’re getting ready to adopt IFRS, according to a survey released by the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA).

"The Security and Exchange Commission’s proposed roadmap calling for U.S. adoption of international standards by 2014 is clearly getting people’s attention,” said Arleen Thomas, AICPA senior vice president for member competency and development. “What our tracking survey shows is that CPAs are increasingly aware that international standards are coming and are starting to feel a real need to get training and gain expertise in this new area.”

Fifty-five percent of about 1,500 CPA surveyed by AICPA said they were preparing in a variety of ways for adoption of IFRS. That’s up 14 percentage points from the 41 percent who were preparing for change according to an AICPA survey in April.

You’re going to have to learn IFRS anyway, so why not get a leap on the competition and pick up the knowledge ASAP. Start with the backgrounder on the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) Web site .

Then take a class with your state CPA association or the AICPA (courses are typically open to non-members). The CPA review firms have also begun offering IFRS seminars.

Then, if there’s a committee preparing a set of test IFRS statements at your firm, get on it. If there isn’t, start one and viola, instant expert status.

November 21, 2008

Cash is King

SELDOM has corporate strategy been turned on its head so quickly. Barely a year ago, cash was a dangerous thing to accumulate: activist investors stalked companies, urging boards to return it to investors, to pay special dividends or to buy back shares. Ever since the 1980s the fashion had been to make companies as lean as possible, outsourcing all but your core competencies, expanding your just-in-time supplier system around the globe, loading up with debt to “leverage” your balance-sheet. Old-style defensive conglomerates, such as Arnold Weinstock’s General Electric Company, were dismantled. Companies that hoarded cash—even ones as good as Toyota and Microsoft—were viewed with suspicion.

No longer. For many big American companies, the day of reckoning came two months ago when the deepening financial crisis brought about the abrupt closure of the overnight commercial-paper market. This briefly sent even the most solid companies into a desperate scramble to find money to meet such basic obligations as paying their staff. Since then, the guiding principle for managers everywhere has been to gather up whatever cash they can find, and then do their damnedest to keep as much of it as possible for as long as possible.

For some firms—the investment banks or the Detroit carmakers—this struggle is already a very public affair. But most of the panic is still hidden. In Britain solid corporate giants are finding it harder to roll over routine loans. Across Europe nervous accountants say they will need to see more proof that firms are “going concerns” before they sign off year-end accounts. In America Fortune 500 firms now face questions from investors about how long their cash will last at current “burn rates”. In Silicon Valley, Sequoia, a venture-capital firm, recently told the small businesses in which it has invested to treat every dollar as if was the last they would ever raise, to cut jobs and scale back growth plans that were not immediately “cashflow-positive”. And the emerging world is not immune: witness a stiff e-mail from Ratan Tata to managers at India’s bellwether Tata group telling them to undertake “a critical review of their cashflow requirements and business plans”.

Thrift and its paradoxes

This cash squeeze is a huge problem for the world economy, because as firms cut discretionary spending wherever they can, the result is likely to be a corporate version of what John Maynard Keynes called the “paradox of thrift”. Every firm does what is prudent for itself, but by cutting its spending it slows down the economy still further and thus hurts everybody, including itself. This will only reinforce the need for expansionary monetary and fiscal policy (see article) to boost demand; and also for more direct support in credit markets, such as the Federal Reserve’s prop for the commercial-paper market (already tapped by some large American firms).

These are vital tasks for politicians and regulators, but for managers the paradox works the other way: spending money might be in society’s interests, but not in their shareholders’. For a whole generation of bosses, what they do in the next few months may come to define the rest of their careers.

For the few lucky hoarders, this is a time to feel both smug and predatory. Japanese firms have been able to make $71 billion in foreign acquisitions so far in 2008, which is on track to be a record year. Bill Gates thought his company should have enough cash to survive a year with zero sales: its $21 billion pile now gives it even more options than normal. Cash-rich drugs firms, such as Eli Lilly, Roche, Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb, have all said that the financial turmoil presents an opportunity for them to buy biotechnology companies at knock-down prices. Germany’s Siemens plans to provide finance for customers that are strapped for cash. A study, aptly from Citigroup (which axed 52,000 people this week), shows cash hoarders now outperforming indebted firms, having lagged before.

For the non-hoarders, there is a balance to be struck. In the short term some of the old ways to perk up your share price now seem suicidal. Huge dividends or share buybacks have to be regarded as reckless (even though share prices, as Warren Buffett points out, look cheap). What was once seen as evidence of corporate fitness for the moment looks like anorexia. More padding—in the form of cash in the bank—will be necessary to secure a clean bill of health. Likewise, ultra-lean supply chains no longer look like such a brilliant idea when you have to find cash to keep afloat a supplier that cannot get even basic trade credit. “Just in time” is giving way to “just in case”.

The bloodbath or the death spiral?

But for how long? This new conservatism is not solely motivated by the fact that cash is hard to come by; demand is also falling for most firms’ products. Households and firms alike have hit the pause button, and no one knows when they will press “play” again. Companies need to plan for that day as well.

As in every downturn, who succeeds and who fails is likely to be determined not by what costs are cut, but how they are cut and above all which ones are not cut. There is a hint of blind panic about some redundancies. Companies argue that one big swing of the axe does less harm than what Sequoia calls the “death spiral” of successive morale-sapping rounds of modest job cuts. But firms that get a reputation for too readily offloading people whom they described only recently as “our most important assets” will suffer eventually in the labour market. One reason why downturns tend to be good times to launch new businesses is because established companies abandon promising growth opportunities too fast. Oracle and Microsoft were both born in difficult economic times.

And there will also come a time when the necessity to safeguard cash is not so all-consuming. Rash though some of them seem today, the Western management fads of the past 30 years improved productivity (one year’s outperformance does not prove the Japanese model was right). But even if cash does become more plentiful, it is doubtful whether today’s generation of managers will be quite so cavalier about taking it for granted. That change in attitude, more than anything else, will be the legacy of this credit crunch for the corporate world.

September 15, 2008

Starting in 2009 USGAAP to Move to IFRS by 2016

The Securities and Exchange Commission recently announced that the U.S. will abandon Generally Accepted Accounting Principles -- for almost 75 years, the bible for U.S. accountants -- joining more than 100 countries around the world instead in using the London-based International Financial Reporting Standards. Pointing to the "remarkably quickening pace of acceptance of a true lingua franca for accounting," SEC Chairman Chris Cox set out a timetable for all U.S. companies to drop GAAP by 2016, with the largest companies switching as early as next year. See here.

There are specific differences between the two systems; for example, the international system only allows the first-in, first-out inventory accounting system. The most important difference is that the international standard is based on principles, whereas GAAP is based on rules. GAAP suffers from the complexity of trying to set rules for all situations, a complexity that often masks economic reality.

GAAP rules fill a nine-inch, three-volume set of pronouncements plus interpretive information. In contrast, IFRS is a slim two-inch book. GAAP was crafted in part by the pressures of the U.S. legal system. Companies have been glad for GAAP rules as defenses for claims of accounting irregularities. But these rules often only pretend to provide clarity. There are hundreds of pages of GAAP covering how to account for derivatives, but this didn't stop opaque pricing mismatches, which helped create the credit crunch. GAAP rules allowed trillions of dollars in securitized financial assets and liabilities to stay off the books of U.S. financial firms, while the international standard, by focusing on the true underlying economics, kept these on the books for firms based elsewhere.

It's surprising that there is no common language for measuring the performance of companies. Until recently, all major countries had their own accounting rules, but IFRS has become the approach of choice. Inconsistent approaches to accounting make it hard to compare an energy company based in Texas with one based in Amsterdam, a bank in New York with one in London, or a biotech firm in Boston with one in Singapore. A single set of accounting rules would mean more effective global disclosure and transparency. It would reduce costs for multinationals that must now prepare multiple books. It would also make U.S. exchanges more competitive for listings by eliminating accounting differences.

A measure of the importance of a single standard is the dislocation that getting there will cause. It will mean rewriting business school texts and retraining of corporate finance departments. The forensic accountants who sniff out problems will have to develop instincts using a new set of measures. The transition will also be tough on investors. Under the SEC proposal, larger companies in the same industry would switch to the international standard before smaller companies do. Investors for the transition period would have to compare similar companies using different accounting.

The big U.S.-based accounting firms generally support the abandonment of GAAP. Skeptics could call this switch in systems the equivalent of the accountant full-employment act for many years, but the profession itself also recognizes that GAAP often fails to reflect underlying economics.

A PriceWaterhouseCoopers briefing document for executives on the accounting change notes that changes will also be necessary in the law. "If an accounting and reporting framework that relies on professional judgment rather than detailed rules is to flourish in the U.S., the legal and regulatory environment will need to evolve in ways that remain to be seen." These include that "regulators will need to respect well-reasoned professional judgments."

A system based on principles could create new defenses for company boards and accountants who try to do the right thing, if they fully disclose why they thought that a particular accounting treatment made sense. The law will have to adjust to accept more ambiguity in accounting, as a necessary condition for reporting with maximum accuracy.

As technology has shown in other areas of life, agreed-upon standards and accepted operating systems drive usage and efficiency. Common measures add value to information. If even the belt-and-suspenders accounting profession is willing to take on the risks of switching its basic system for assessing businesses, we're truly in an era when anything that adds to understanding belongs in the asset column, while anything that undermines transparency is a liability.

March 03, 2008

Anglo Swiss Chamber of Commerce Event

Wednesday, 12th March 2008, Geneva (Geneva Chapter)

Luncheon addressed by The Earl of Home CVO CBE, Chairman of RBS Coutts Bank Ltd

Is Big Beautiful?


Size matters! This notion may be put to the test sooner than we think in these early years of the 21st century. The economies of huge countries like China and India take on a new significance and, according to some forecasts, may soon even overtake modern economic giants like the USA, Japan and the European Union.

But what size is viable? And on what does it depend? Is Scotland, for example, too small to be in Europe? Is Citigroup too big? Is Europe too big?

These and other fascinating questions will be addressed by a speaker of considerable business experience who leads one of the great names in British banking. He is also an active member of the House of Lords whose public speeches are widely acknowledged for their eloquence and wit.

He is the scion of one of the leading families in Scotland and the son of the late British Prime Minister Sir Alec Douglas-Home. He inherited the title of the 15th Earl of Home in 1995. Lord Home was appointed Chairman of Coutts & Co in 1999 and became Chairman of Coutts Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. a year later. He is also a director of Douglas & Angus Estates in Scotland and Governor of the Ditchley Foundation in England.



Grand Hotel Kempinski, Geneva

Kindly sponsored by

Barclays Bank (Suisse) SA,
RBS Coutts,
Lloyds TSB Bank Plc,
PricewaterhouseCoopers AG
Withers LLP


Invitation / Register and pay online for this event


January 17, 2008

Looking at the Markets in 2008: A view from Canary Wharf. Blue sky or grey clouds ahead?


British Swiss Chamber of Commerce luncheon at the Hôtel Beau Rivage in Geneva addressed by Mr Henk Potts, Equity Strategist, Barclays Wealth Management,


Who can tell whether 2008 will be the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning of the uncertainties in the world’s financial markets? Well, one person who is better informed than most is our guest speaker, Henk Potts.

Will economic uncertainties continue throughout the New Year? Is the widening effect of the sub-prime crisis in the U.S. due to “snooty bankers and financiers” unable to cope with the complexities of the products in which they were investing, as someone said recently? Or are the markets merely responding to a Newtonian principle?

With growing inflation in the Eurozone, a looming economic slowdown and flat consumer spending in the U.S., plus the seemingly unstoppable acceleration of India’s and China’s globalized economies, how nervous – or optimistic - should we all be feeling as we start the year of the Beijing Olympics? There could not be a better complement to a start-of-year business lunch menu in Geneva than enjoying the bonhomie of the BSCC generously served up with the astute analysis and relaxed wit of our guest speaker from Canary Wharf.



Kindly sponsored by Barclays Bank (Suisse) SA, Coutts Bank von Ernst Ltd, Lloyds TSB Bank Plc, PricewaterhouseCoopers AG and Withers LLP

September 10, 2007

Forecasting foreign investment in China, Japan and India


Asia’s three giants—China, Japan and India—all acknowledge the importance of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), yet their fortunes in this sphere will vary widely between now and 2011, according to a new report. FDI has become an inextricable part of the Chinese economic success story and this is likely to continue. Japan, a belated convert to the merits of FDI, will struggle to quickly improve its poor performance in this sphere. India, which often ranks second only to China in the minds of emerging-market investors, will chart a mid-course: FDI will rise, but the country will continue punching below its weight.

The report—World Investment Prospects to 2011: Foreign direct investment and the challenge of political risk—produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) in co-operation with the Columbia Program on International Investment (CPII), charts global FDI trends over the next five years, including on the basis of a global survey of more than 600 direct investors. Within this global survey, the Asian giants—together accounting for nearly 30% of global GDP measured at purchasing power parities—loom large.

Whereas China’s and Japan’s contrasting medium-term FDI profiles look reasonably clear, considerable uncertainty surrounds India. There are widespread expectations of a major surge of FDI inflows. However, the EIU-CPII report argues that despite the country’s dynamism and increasing global economic importance, inflows to India are likely to remain relatively modest, certainly in relation to the country’s potential.

China out front

With projected inflows of some US$87bn per year in 2007-11 China is expected to rank third globally, behind the US and UK. China’s projected share of global FDI inflows of some 6% in 2007-11 would be equal to its share in 2002-06. China continues to be ranked by most international firms as their preferred investment destination, including in the survey conducted for World Investment Prospects.

Despite some signs of the incipient FDI protectionism that is also affecting many other parts of the world, the dominant trend in China is likely to remain one of FDI liberalisation. China is committed to meeting its World Trade Organisation (WTO) obligations. The gradual opening up of domestic commerce, financial services and tourism is under way. Geographical restrictions on where foreign companies are allowed to set up operations will also be relaxed in the coming years. China’s price competitiveness will be maintained over the forecast period. On baseline assumptions, there seems little risk of a massive relocation of FDI from China to cheaper locations.

Still Japan Inc

As the world’s second-largest economy (at market exchange rates) and boasting one of the world’s largest consumer markets (with a wealthy population of nearly 130m), Japan should, in theory, offer inward investors ample rewards. The reality is rather different. The rate of FDI penetration as measured by the share of the stock of inward FDI in GDP, at 2.5%, is one of the lowest in the world. FDI inflows into Japan fell by more than half in 2005, to US$3.2bn (a mere 0.1% of GDP, one of the lowest ratios in the world) from what was a modest average of US$7.3bn in 2001-04. Large disinvestments meant that inward FDI flows turned negative in 2006, at US$-6.8bn.

Officially, the Japanese government now welcomes inward FDI. In practice, however, Japan’s FDI regime remains difficult, owing to the complex regulatory environment that appears designed to protect domestic players. High labour costs, weak growth in recent years and cultural barriers also help to explain the low FDI levels. Although some pick-up is expected during the forecast period, FDI inflows will remain very low as a share of GDP and the ratio of the stock of inward FDI to GDP is projected to rise to only 3% by 2011. Japan will remain a difficult country in which to invest and change is likely to be incremental at best.

India to disappoint

FDI inflows into India grew strongly to US$17.5bn in 2006, two and half times the US$6.7bn recorded in 2005 (although some US$4.6bn of the 2006 recorded inflow was owing to two accounting transactions which resulted in an FDI inflow and outflow of the same amounts).

Despite strong growth in FDI inflows in 2005-06, India has yet to build a critical mass in FDI. Despite India’s successful positioning as a business processing and IT outsourcing hub, these activities are accompanied by relatively little FDI . The services sector continues to be the main target for FDI in India. By contrast, FDI in manufacturing actually declined in 2006 to US$1.5bn, compared with US$1.8bn in 2005, reflecting the fact that the environment for manufacturing FDI is not yet attractive enough. FDI inflows into India are set to grow further over the medium term, but will remain well below potential because of continuing political resistance to privatisations, inflexible labour laws and poor infrastructure.

Funding the boom


Satya Nagda

Mr Nagda is glad he was able to borrow money

Satya Nagda, 45, thought he was going to lose everything last year. The cornershop owner in one of Mumbai's small suburbs had run into bad financial trouble and lost a lot of money. Read original article.

A father of three, he could not afford to keep his fledgling business running.

The shop is his life. It provides him and his family with their only means of survival.

Then, he got a second chance, in the form of a $1,000 (£500) loan from Cholamandalam DBS, one of the biggest lenders in the Indian sub-prime business.

"I needed money to keep my shop aflloat", Satya says as he packs away a bag of groceries for one of his customers in his small cornershop.

"If I had tried to get a loan like this 10 or 20 years ago, it would have been impossible.

"People like me were never given loans from banks. I've been lucky. I got $1,000 I am paying it back over a number of years."

Financial failure

Getting a loan in India has never been this easy.

Atul Pande of Cholamandalam DBS

There's no real tried and tested way yet of telling what the credit history is of the customer

Atul Pande, managing director of Cholamandalam DBS

But it wasn't always so.

As recently as three decades ago, if you lived in one of the back alleys of Mumbai and did not have a large salary or a reliable income, then chances are you would be overlooked for a loan.

Many had to turn to informal ways of borrowing money to find their way out of financial difficulties.

Borrowing from money lenders or pawning the family jewels became common place. But interest rates were exorbitant - at times over 100%.

There was also what analysts call the "shame factor" that stopped consumers from borrowing money officially.

Getting into debt was considered embarassing by many Indians. Encouraged from a young age to save their money rather than spend it, a frugal lifestyle was lauded during the days of India's planned economy.

Admitting you were not able to maintain a secure and consistent bank balance was basically admitting that you were a failure.

Intense competition

Times have changed.

In India's new economy, an opulent and flashy lifestyle is a sign of success.

Akhilesh Tilotia of Park Financial Advisors

Unless there is a huge global slowdown the credit boom in India is set to continue for a very long time

Akhilesh Tilotia, Parks Financial Advisors

Borrowing money to buy a new car, a new home, or expand your business is no longer seen as something shameful. It is seen as savvy banking.

Banks and financial instutions in India are pulling out all the stops to capture all segments of the consumer loans market. But the sub-prime market in particular has attracted the interest of both foreign and local banks.

Cholamandalam DBS, the financial institution that Mr Nagda got his loan from, is a joint venture between Singapore's DBS Bank and India's Murugappa group. The firm now has more than 100 branches spread out across India, specialising in consumer loans.

But there is intense competition in the sub-prime market in India.

HSBC, GE Money and Standard Chartered are just a few of the foreign banks fighting for the business of Indian borrowers. Dozens of Indian banks are also involved in this business.

There are worries though that in the rush to add new customers, banks in India could overlook whether or not borrowers will be able to pay back their loans - sparking fears that India could be headed for a debt crisis of its own.

"In India, what we have is a rudimentary credit bureau," Atul Pande, managing director of Cholamandalam DBS, says as he gazes across one of his crowded branches in Mumbai.

"So there's no real tried and tested way yet of telling what the credit history is of the customer.

"That will change over time as the sector here becomes more sophisticated. Also,as competition for business increases, there's a risk that banks and financial instutions will over-lend to borrowers who have paid back their loans in the past, to try and attract them as new customers. That could endanger the customer because he may not be able to pay back this loan."

Lasting boom

But those fears are not affecting the credit card business in India, another form of lending to customers.

Doctor Girish Kulkarni

These people harass me by using bad words, and insult me and my profession

Dr Girish Kulkarni

Although it makes up just a fraction of the consumer loans business, credit cards are a growing sector here, and it' is common to see youngsters whip out a plastic card to pay for their meal at a restaurant, or to buy a fancy new MP3 player in a shop.

India's attitude to credit is changing , yet some local financial services professionals doubt that this new mindset will set India up for a debt trap - the way we've seen in the US recently.

"I don't think so," says Akhilesh Tilotia, a financial advisor with Parks Financial Advisors.

"The difference between the US and India is that the loans in the US were asset-backed, and the value of those assets started to deteriorate. In India you don't have that situation.

"You also have an environment here where salaries are rising quickly, and are expected to continue rising. I think unless there is a huge global slowdown the credit boom in India is set to continue for a very long time."

Violent creditors

But there are those who have suffered as a result of this credit boom - and are now paying the price for it.

Girish Kulkarni, a doctor in Mumbai, took on a loan of $9,000 seven years ago to keep his medical clinic running.

He says he was cheated by a fraudulent bank agent who stole the money he borrowed from the bank by writing checks to himself. To reclaim its loan, Mr Kulkarni says the bank has sent people to threaten him to him.

"They have sent recovery agents to my house at least once every two months," he says during an interview in his clininc.

"These people harass me by using bad words, and insult me and my profession. It's insulting to hear such abuse, and I have felt very distressed by this entire incident."

Because there is no formal way of recovering loans here, many Indian banks have taken to the practice of outsourcing their debt recovery services.

There have been many reports in Indian papers recently of these agents harassing and at times even beating up or making threatening phone calls to customers who have not paid back their loans.

The Reserve Bank of India is looking into this, and it has been suggested that banks need to clamp down on such practices and be more stringent about who they employ to recover their loans.

But until stricter regulations are enforced in India's banking sector, Mr Kulkarni and his family are in for a traumatic time.

He has now taken legal action against the bank, and has lodged an official complaint over the tactics used by the debt recovery agents, but it is unlikely with the number of cases backed up in the courts here that he will get a swift resolution.

The strong economic growth in India has meant that banks here are in a rush to entice new customers.

But the worry is that in this race for business, the risks of a looming debt trap have not been accounted for - and regulations to protect India's borrowers have yet to be implemented.